At present, the price of seed cotton is difficult to stop, and the focus of Zhengzhou cotton price shifts upward to 14000 yuan / ton. Zheng cotton 1501 contract, 1505 contract strong and weak change sensitive, this week one or two price difference from 1501 contract discount 1505 contract, once again to 1501 contract 1505 contract. The logic of contracts in the near and far months is relatively simple, mainly considering whether the pressure is forward or backward.

As of the end of September, the national cotton business inventory was 430 thousand tons (including cotton and cotton into circulation, excluding state cotton), a decrease of 70 thousand tons from the previous month. The national cotton industry inventory was 480 thousand tons, and the national cotton industrial and commercial inventories totaled less than one million tons. Therefore, the new cotton market, coupled with the government's enthusiasm to purchase cotton and cotton with domestic cotton, is becoming more and more popular among enterprises. However, the seller's cotton farmers have different attitudes towards direct subsidy policy, and their sales progress is much lower than in previous years.

By the end of October, Akesu , Bachu The picking rate of seed cotton has exceeded 55%, and most of Kashi's cotton area has reached 60%. However, because farmers do not recognize the current purchase price of seed cotton, they are generally reluctant to sell the direct subsidy when they can not get it.

As of October 20th, Unginned cotton The progress of sale is about 30%, of which Kashi cotton region is relatively popular because of the early promotion and direct subsidy policy, and the enthusiasm of farmers selling cotton is slightly higher than other cotton regions in southern Xinjiang. However, this year's direct subsidy rule is clear that the price of direct subsidy is from 9 to the end of November. With the passage of time, the supply of seed cotton can be increased, but the demand for hoarding cotton is hopeless.

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Recently, the US Cotton Corp said in its October report that the Chinese government manages cotton imports through the import quota system, which includes the minimum import volume stipulated by WTO (894 thousand tons or 4 million 100 thousand packages). The imported cotton beyond the quota quota will be subject to a 40% tariff, while the quota issued by the WTO shall be determined by the Chinese government itself.

The Chinese government's own quotas can be divided into two categories: one is "quasi tax quotas", with a tax rate of 5-40%, paying taxes according to the principle of high price, low tax rate, low price and high tax rate, and the other one is "processing trade quotas", which only deal with export processing enterprises.

Understand the difference between China's various cotton import quotas in order to better understand how the Chinese government decides on China's cotton imports. Both the WTO regulations and the quotas allocated by the Chinese government are calculated according to the calendar year.

Therefore, the quotas for each calendar year belong to two cotton harvest years (for example, from the beginning of each year to the end of July, and from the beginning of August to the end of the calendar).

In September 19th, the Chinese government announced that it would not issue any discretionary quotas in 2015. This is an important event in the cotton market, because China's cotton imports have always been an uncertain factor. This decision indicates that China's imports will be restricted to a lower level, which will bring downward pressure on international cotton prices.

Although there will be no additional quota in 2015, the number of quotas that need to be exhausted before January will be unknown in 2014. However, no matter how many quotas left on the market in 2014, it will not be able to significantly change the trend of China's cotton import decline in 2014/15. It also means that global cotton stocks, including China, will set a record, which will lead to further decline in cotton prices in the future.