Today is the first trading day of A shares in 2015. The Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities have opened up in high jump, and have been soaring in real estate, coal, nonferrous metals, steel, oil and other sectors.

By the time of press release, the Shanghai stock index reported 3350.39 points, or 3.56%, and traded at 450 billion yuan; the Shenzhen composite index reported 11554.06 points, or 4.92%, and traded 250 billion 500 million yuan.

On the disk, coal shares led, and railways, nonferrous metals, liquor, shipping and real estate stocks were among the top gainers.

Computer applications, homemade software, P2P, online travel and other theme stocks collapsed.

Yuan Xuya believes that the low valuation of A shares, the continued release of the dividend reform and the "one belt and one way" national strategy are the three major driving factors for the current round of market.

He believes that in the international market, China and the US have the best quality assets in the world, and US stocks have hit a record high, so A shares will inevitably rise.

In addition,

Will continue to deepen, dividends continue to release, economic growth is expected to hit bottom; third, the "one belt and one way" national strategy is equivalent to the second western development, will start a new mileage of China's open economy.

Yuan Xuya thought, if

The reform will continue to push forward, and the Yangtze River economic belt and Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will coordinate the steady growth of China's economy, so the Shanghai stock index is expected to explore 5000 points during the year.

He stressed that the current bull market is an atypical bull market, the economic bottom has not been confirmed, but the market is often in front of the real economy, the stock market bears cattle or indicates that the economy is gradually bottoming.

At present, A shares are still in the first stage of the bull market. The best strategy at present is to keep stocks unchanged, do not blindly increase their positions, and do not make profits easily.

For investors holding small cap stocks and "full warehouse", Yuan Xuya's proposal is not to change positions easily. With the bull market continuing to push forward, small and medium cap stocks are expected to have a boost.

It is suggested that we should pay attention to four types of stocks, such as fee service industry, military industry, state-owned enterprise reform and heavy equipment.

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In 2014, the two financial balance moved forward, breaking through trillion yuan in December 19th, nearly double that before August 25th.

In terms of volume, margin trading accounts for a higher share of A shares.

According to statistics, in January 2, 2014, the first trading day of this year, the share of margin trading in the two cities accounted for 9.70% of A shares, and after March 28th, the proportion has never been lower than 10%.

After October 30th, the figure increased to 15%, and after November 20th, it remained stable at around 20%.

Financing plays the leading role in the A stock market.

Elephants dance may not trample on ants. The most competitive high-tech and Internet SMEs in China are still the focus of the future. The reform from new three boards to gem will ignite the flames of next year's high-tech and innovative SMEs.

Do elephants in the market dance have improved the fundamentals of most traditional cyclical businesses?

These enterprises are still facing enormous pressure to go to inventory and high debt. The efficiency of many state-owned holding enterprises is still low. But under the impact of the reform, the companies began to use the stock price to rise to solve their own difficulties, or to supplement capital, or cash in, or to introduce external shareholders.

Market volatility is strong and confidence is unstable. Margin trading has become the vane of market confidence.

After a trillion dollar breakthrough in the financing balance, the market collectively went crazy, but by December 23rd and 24, the two cities had a net outflow of financing funds for two consecutive trading days, and the financing balance had dropped to below trillion.

Considering the difference in the base of the two cities' financing balance, the net capital flow of the Shenzhen stock market appears more obvious.

Weak market, always accompanied by good news, such as the December 24th financial stocks net outflow, the evening of the central bank announced that non interbank deposits do not have to pay reserves, equivalent to stealth drop, which made the financial morning 25 morning frenzied financial stocks, Shanghai composite index exceeded 3100 points.

If there is no basic stability and cooperation, we must look at the trend of capital. There is no doubt that the invisible hand keeps monetary stability and keeps the stock market hot. This is the initial driving force for the stock market to grow significantly.

Whether the future can turn from a fake bull to a real bull market depends on whether the reform is successful, because in the long run, the market has to go back to fundamentals.

In addition to elephants, there are growing ants in the stock market who may turn into market players.