Xinjiang cotton is locally descending. In January 18th, Southern Xinjiang The price of Akesu platform 3128 and 2129 is 13600-13700 yuan / ton, 14000 yuan / ton respectively, and the price is slightly lower than 100 yuan / ton on the 12 day. For some cotton producers with late quality deviation, the price is only 13000 yuan / ton, and the price is reduced by 200 yuan / ton compared with 12 days. The market reflects that the price of Xinjiang cotton has dropped slightly with the Spring Festival approaching. According to the author's analysis, there are the following reasons:

First, the overall weakness of the electronic disk is a drag on the spot market. First of all, deflation worries investors to get rid of their long positions, and Zhou Meimian's stagflation in the two key support stops, as of Friday (16), March cotton closed at 59.23 cents / pound. Secondly, last week Zheng cotton Not much. As of 16 days, the CF1505 contract of zhengmian main force has closed at 13130 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton compared with 9 days.

Second, the supply of cotton is increasing, and the market is right. supply and demand A pessimistic mentality. According to China's cotton net data, as at January 16, 2015, Xinjiang cotton was more than 4 million 170 thousand tons, plus the inventory pressure of 10 million tonnes of national cotton reserves. It is estimated that China's total cotton supply will be over 19 million tons this year, while cotton consumption will not exceed 7 million 500 thousand tons. The great easing of supply continues to suppress cotton prices.

Third, at present, some domestic textile enterprises have made a slight improvement in the conventional pure cotton yarn, but the overall demand for yarn market is weak, and some enterprises are straining funds at the end of the year. In order to speed up the withdrawal of funds, some manufacturers have expanded the profit margins for downstream enterprises in the sales process, and the cotton yarn "bright, steady and dark" has greatly restricted the production and sales of cotton yarn. The price war is fierce. The textile enterprises are cautious about the purchase of lint cotton, and the price of imported cotton is still lower than the domestic cotton price.

But after the Spring Festival, how the market will operate, the market is divided. The author believes that after the Spring Festival, the price of Xinjiang cotton will show the trend of "high quality cotton stable slightly stronger, low quality cotton continuing downward".

The quality of Xinjiang cotton has been underestimated this year. By the middle of January, most of China's main cotton, cotton and cotton stocks had bottomed out and were in a state of no market price. However, the price of SM cotton in the US cotton and Australia cotton is 16400 yuan / ton, 17500 yuan / ton, compared with the 2129 grade Xinjiang cotton 14800 yuan / ton, the mainland reaches the factory price 1600-2700 yuan / ton, and the quality Xinjiang cotton is actually in the "low-lying land" of the price.

In addition, Xinjiang cotton is in a state of price inversion. According to the Xinjiang regiment and local ginning factory, the cost of Xinjiang cotton factory is 14000 yuan / ton (grade 3128) in the current year, and the cost of the 3128 grade lint supervision library is around 14200 yuan / ton if the cost of warehousing and public inspection is 160-200 yuan / ton. However, at present, the price of grade 3128 lint in Akesu regulatory bank is only 13500-13600 yuan / ton, and the cost of factory upside down is 600 yuan / ton. Therefore, up to now, the spot quotation of some regiment and local ginning plants in Xinjiang is still 14500-14600 yuan / ton (grade 3128), and there is a "fault" with the current market. Although cotton is not sold, cotton prices remain firm.

In 2014/15, Xinjiang cotton increased production, but the quality of cotton, especially medium hand picked cotton was not large. In the middle and later stages, the quality of cotton picked in the middle and late stages is much higher than that of cotton in Xinjiang, especially in the late stage, and the quality of the cotton is less than 1/3.