The explosion of PX devices is more psychological impact on investors, and the fundamentals of market oversupply have not changed. Therefore, we believe that PTA will rise in inertia this week, but there will be relatively limited room for growth.

Around 18:55 in April 6th, the aromatics PX project in Tenglong, Gure, Zhangzhou, Fujian exploded. Affected by this, in April 7th, the PTA futures contract ended September, closing at 4892 yuan / ton.

The scientific name of PX is xylene, which is mainly used to produce PTA. The scientific name of PX is xylene, which is mainly used to produce PTA. In the environment of weak demand, PTA is sensitive to the rise and fall of PX prices. At present, our country's PX A lot of imports are needed, and the self-sufficiency rate is around 50%. Because of the low elasticity of supply, the rise and fall of PX device load will have a great impact on the price of PX.

By the end of April 7th, PTA futures The main contract in September was 1327754 hands, down 82312 from April 3rd and two consecutive trading days. PTA recently completed the contract. The main contract was changed from May contract to September contract. The two consecutive trading day in September was mainly due to a long profit, which means that PTA's rising energy is insufficient.

In April 7th, the announcement by Zheng Shang PTA The top 20 seats in the long positions were 512474 hands, down 36797 from the previous trading day, and 20 seats in the first half were 590050 hands, down 48595 from the previous trading day. On the whole, the net position is 77576 hands, up 11798 hands compared with the previous trading day.

In the past 20 positions held, the number of short positions has declined, and the drop in positions in short positions is even larger than that in long positions. This shows that Fujian PX devices exploded to stimulate short positions to leave temporarily and avoid risks.

As of April 7th, PTA registered warehouse receipts amounted to 110532 hands, with an effective forecast of 55962 hands, an increase of 4038 hands over the previous trading day and a 552660 spot equivalent. PTA registered warehouse receipts are not only large in quantity but also showing signs of continuous increase, indicating that PTA has ample cash supply and industrial funds are selling PTA in the futures market.

To sum up, we believe that the main reason for the PTA limit in April 7th is the explosion of the PX plant in Fujian. However, judging from the position of PTA, the amount of registered warehouse receipts has decided that PTA prices will hardly rise sharply before the delivery month. At the same time, the price of PTA rose in April 7th, and its position did not increase or fall. There was a sign of departure from the hang up plate in the early stage, and the subsequent increase in PTA's kinetic energy was insufficient. In addition, although the number of positions in the top 20 seats of PTA has increased, the overall position is still a headroom pattern, and bears are still taking the initiative.