April 13th Xinjiang cotton The competition has launched 7128 tons of resources, a large number of market bullish.

The national cotton exchange market is scheduled to be listed in April 13th, and 7127.84 tons of Xinjiang cotton are competing for resources, including 1795.533 tons of resources in the Xinjiang reservoir area (912.67 tons of hand picked cotton, 13300 yuan per ton), 882.863 tons of machine picked cotton and 12100 yuan / ton minimum bid, including 170.367 tons of cotton corps, 13600 yuan / ton for the lowest price, 5332.307 tons of resources in the inland reservoir area, 3263.525 tons of group purchase, 12100 tons of hand picked cotton, and minimum price of 3263.525 yuan / ton. Machine picked cotton 1375.055 tons, minimum price 13200 yuan / ton.

When participating in the "group buying" cotton transaction volume reached 500 tons and above, each batch of "group buying" cotton on the basis of the transaction price automatically lowered 100 yuan / ton as the final transaction price. wrong Group buying resources It accounts for 2068.782 tons (1290.992 tons of hand picked cotton, 13550 yuan / ton minimum), 777.79 tons of machine picked cotton, and 12900 yuan / ton minimum bid.

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Analysts believe that cotton prices in the new year are likely to go up and down gradually after a low oscillation.

Judging from the absolute price, the subsidy of 700 yuan / ton is actually reduced to less than 0.4 yuan per kilogram of cotton per kilogram. Therefore, from the impact of planting area, the cotton growers of this kind of cotton will still grow, and will not produce too much impact. The decline of planting area is mainly due to the overall decline of cotton yield last year and the lower efficiency.

For the impact of the new year's cotton prices, most of the ginning mills are losing money from this year's point of view. The main reason is that the high price of seed cotton has not been able to sell the lint at high price. According to the cost of the initial acquisition of 14500 yuan / ton, plus the interest and warehousing costs at the later stage, the loss per ton is close to 1000 yuan, which may lead to a more cautious purchase of cotton enterprises in the next year, and the possibility of buying down the market at the initial stage is more likely.

However, from the overall output, the intention of planting cotton in the mainland has dropped by about 31%, and the decline in Xinjiang is expected to be 9%. Of course, this is only a survey of planting intentions, but the decline in overall output is a foregone conclusion, and the output of the whole country will probably drop to around 5 million 300 thousand tons.

Even if aggregate demand continues to slide, the supply and demand structure has begun to reverse. Of course, the premise is to continue to control imports, because a large number of national repository stores exist, so this is a big probability event. As a result, the new supply of the new year may only be around 6 million 200 thousand tons. Analysts believe that the most likely time for dumping is still in the latter part of the year, so the market is more likely to recover.

From a microcosmic point of view, for cotton farmers, because of the fact that the combined price of the actual subsidy and the selling price has not reached 19800 yuan / ton in most regions this year, cotton farmers will choose to protect their own interests if the target price is lower this year.