Affected by the rebound in crude oil and inflation expectations, PTA futures have been maintaining a strong trend since mid January.

In recent years, PTA futures have been volatile in the wake of strong cotton and capital push.

At present, there are obvious signs of PTA funding promotion, which do not follow the basic operation.

Under normal circumstances, downstream polyester enterprises will focus on stocking PTA before and after the Spring Festival.

With the end of the stock market from February to mid April, downstream demand began to fade, and PTA enterprises began to focus on overhaul.

As of April 22nd, the load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 67.42%, down from 70.31% at the beginning of April.

Supply

As well as the economic downturn leading to weak demand, the PTA price rise still needs to be treated with a rebound. The reversal will need to wait for the oversupply to ease, or there will be signs of oversupply.

Therefore, we should not be overly optimistic about the rise of PTA.

Looking ahead, the domestic PTA program overhauled many devices in May, so later stage

Supply expectation tends to be tight.

Among them, in May, Zhuhai BP110 million tons, Yanda grand 2 million 200 thousand tons, three Lane 1 million 200 thousand tons of equipment planned maintenance.

The Hon Bang 1 million 100 thousand ton plant, which is expected to restart in the early stage, has not resumed production, and the possibility of resuming production in the near future is low.

Therefore, the supply side of domestic PTA tends to be in short supply in the late stage, and the further reduction of load is an important reason for the rise of PTA.

Usually, with the end of April

With the arrival of the peak season of sales, downstream polyester enterprises tend to have higher PTA inventory in order to supply terminal demand.

On the contrary, PTA enterprises tend to be in low position due to the centralized stock market.

However, judging from this year's situation, the downstream polyester enterprises have doubts about whether the PTA will be able to rise in the near future.

On the contrary, although the load of PTA enterprises has been reduced recently, due to the low acceptance of the current PTA prices by the downstream enterprises and the low willingness to make stock, this will limit the sustainability of the PTA increase.

It has to be mentioned that the recent rise in PTA prices is largely caused by capital speculation. However, as the price of PTA continues to rise, the profitability of PTA production enterprises which have difficulty in pre operation has been significantly improved.

Therefore, if the price of PTA continues to rise, it will speed up the pre production plan of PTA enterprises, and the enterprises that originally planned to suspend production may also postpone or even cancel the plan for the discontinuation of production.

From the inventory point of view, although the downstream centralized replenishment, but at present polyester enterprises inventory is still in the low position, PTA production enterprise inventory unexpectedly increased.

As of April 22nd, the inventory of domestic PTA manufacturers remained at about 6 days, up 2.5 days from the end of 2015, rising by 71.43%, and the stocks of downstream polyester enterprises were 3 days, down 1.5 days from the end of 2015, with a decrease of 33.33%.

In fact, with the end of the centralized stock market after the Spring Festival, reducing the load of PTA enterprises is a normal phenomenon. The recent market concern is to reduce the load more in order to match capital speculation.

At present, the real situation of the market is that as the price of PTA continues to rise, it is not very strong for the downstream enterprises to stock up, which results in the high inventory of PTA production enterprises, so the price increase of PTA is not supported by demand.

The author believes that the current factor leading to PTA price rise is still the capital side. The price of PTA may be rising in the near future, but the persistence of the increase is doubtful. Investors are advised to wait and see and wait for the latter to be short.