In the short term, the long and short game around Zheng cotton continues. These factors include

The auction price is weak and the price of new cotton is on the high side, the demand for cotton yarn is low and the ten peak season for gold and silver nine is expected.

There is also a division of views on whether the mid term international cotton will continue to strengthen.

In order to better illustrate the above arguments, we will discuss from the following aspects.

The first part, how to see the price of national cotton auction is weak and new cotton prices are high?

The state will postpone dumping until late September and downstream.

The weak demand and the dual function of enterprise demand have led to the weak volume and price of the national cotton store auction since the beginning of August, and the latest auction price of 3128B has reached 13927 yuan / ton.

On the other hand, the market generally expects Xinjiang cotton to start weighing 3128B instead of lint cotton (3128B) at 14500-15000 yuan / ton, which is expected to come from cotton farmers' reluctant sale and high quality cotton shortage. In the foreseeable future, if the weather does not damage cotton growth, the new and old cotton prices will be connected with the new year's cotton market.

First, in the first 9 months of the month, textile enterprises still have increased energy storage capacity; the current raw material stock of spinning mills is generally safe stock, that is, 20 days to 1 months or so, and a few raw materials stocks are in the range of 1 and a half months or even 2 months. As the next two weeks, the reserve price is dropping, especially after entering the traditional peak season in mid and early 9 months, the mills need to fill up the raw materials of cotton raw materials until mid October. This does not exclude a certain extent in promoting the auction of cotton reserves, and then has some support for Zheng cotton futures. However, this time window is concentrated in the first half of the month and will not last for a long time.

Second, the current market generally anticipates the high price of the new cotton scale. But if the weather is good in Xinjiang and the mainland in the next 1 months, the new cotton price will not be too long. After entering the middle and late 10 months, especially after November, there will be obvious pressure on domestic cotton spot prices. These pressures will come from the gradual weakening of the traditional peak season factors in the ten cotton spinning industry, the weakening of terminal demand in the fourth quarter, the weakening of the support for domestic yarn prices, the continued substitution of pure cotton by non cotton fibers (the above factors are detailed in the second part of this article), and the heavy supply pressure at the stage (see the third part of the article).

The second part, how to look at the golden nine silver ten peak season expectations?

At present, the demand for cotton textile is obvious in the off-season, the cotton yarn prices continue to fall, and the profits of the cotton mill have shrunk dramatically. Many textile enterprises have reached the margin of profit and loss. Even the textile enterprises with high price for buying cotton reserves have lost money due to higher cost. Nevertheless, the market still has great expectations for the traditional Kim Gu silver ten peak season. Our view is that gold and silver ten traditional cotton season will play a role in cotton spinning demand, but timeliness and intensity are expected to be lower than market expectations.

First, golden nine silver ten is expected to be strong in the peak season but short in timeliness.

The golden nine silver ten peak season is expected to be jointly completed by G20 printing and dyeing enterprises after the G20 summit, the cotton textile industry chain supplement, and the growth of orders in the busy season.

　　首先，由于G20峰會(huì)因素，過去一段時(shí)間國家人為干預(yù)浙江印染企業(yè)停產(chǎn)力度大，峰會(huì)以后9月中下旬這些企業(yè)的重新開工將帶動(dòng)需求階段性修復(fù)，但就旺季訂單而言，在國內(nèi)外需求疲弱態(tài)勢下，訂單不會(huì)大爆發(fā)而只是有限好轉(zhuǎn);其次在上述因素下，進(jìn)入9月棉紡產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈條補(bǔ)庫有望進(jìn)行，但是力度低于預(yù)期：這主要源于隨著新花大量下市，旺季來臨時(shí)候全球棉花供應(yīng)會(huì)很充裕，而中間環(huán)節(jié)的紗廠原料庫存將在全年維持安全庫存不會(huì)多補(bǔ)，近期紗線庫存有所增加，短期內(nèi)還在累積之中，而坯布產(chǎn)成品庫存均不斷抬升近期，唯一低的庫存在于坯布企業(yè)紗線原料庫存很低，單靠這一個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)很難翹動(dòng)全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈;同時(shí)由于前期由于各種因素中國拋儲(chǔ)政策未被按計(jì)劃執(zhí)行，由此帶來的棉花價(jià)格上行帶動(dòng)了棉紗價(jià)格上行，這個(gè)過程中無論是棉花貿(mào)易商、還是紗線貿(mào)易商都囤積了一定

Quantity of cotton, which Cotton Traders hoard about 300 thousand tons of cotton, this part of cotton and yarn stocks are expected to hit the market in the coming season, will weaken the entire cotton textile industry chain replenishment market;

That is to say, the peak season factor has a certain degree of support to the spot and futures, but the effective time window is very short. At the same time, the support for cotton spot and futures prices in the peak season will decrease from month to month, because the consumption of cotton spinning terminal in the fourth quarter is expected to go down further.

Second, the demand for cotton textile and home textile terminals is weak in the fourth quarter.

　　首先就內(nèi)銷來看，服裝零售呈現(xiàn)量減價(jià)增局面：7月全國百家重點(diǎn)大型零售企業(yè)服裝零售額同比增長6.2%，增速較上月提高1.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，較上年同期提高8.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，這主要是由服裝價(jià)格上漲所致，而非銷售量作用，7月服裝零售量同比增長2.8%，增速較上月下降1.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，較上年同期下降3個(gè)百分點(diǎn);這組數(shù)據(jù)折射出中國包括棉紡服裝在內(nèi)終端需求疲弱的結(jié)構(gòu)性頑疾：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)未來的路越來越難走，實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體低迷與金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上升伴生而行，終端整體消費(fèi)面臨低迷;而未來經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激政策空間也有限：金融資產(chǎn)和房地產(chǎn)泡沫使寬松貨幣政策投鼠忌器，而債務(wù)壓力和稅收大幅削減也使寬松財(cái)政政策也難超預(yù)期，進(jìn)入四季度中國經(jīng)濟(jì)重心滑落不可避免，居民可支配收入下滑以及居民房貸大幅增長勢必在未來幾個(gè)月持續(xù)擠壓包括棉紡服裝在內(nèi)的終端需求，而房地產(chǎn)在四

Quarterly downturns will also inhibit home textile consumption.

In terms of external demand, it is still in the doldrums: from the latest data, the import of American clothing slipped in June, and the number of clothing imports fell 1.33% in June, and the total import volume of clothing fell by 6.1%, mainly due to the sharp decline in the price of imported garments. In June, the average price of imports of garments in the United States dropped by 4.8%.

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Third, the strength of outer yarns will weaken.

　　今年由于印度減產(chǎn)印度國內(nèi)棉花價(jià)格不斷走高，同時(shí)巴基斯坦國內(nèi)棉花減產(chǎn)也很嚴(yán)重，大量從印度進(jìn)口棉花使印度國內(nèi)棉花價(jià)格進(jìn)一步上行，這些因素，當(dāng)然還有其它因素共同帶動(dòng)了國際棉花價(jià)格，棉花價(jià)格的不斷走高使國際棉紗價(jià)格節(jié)節(jié)走高，甚至超過了中國國內(nèi)棉紗價(jià)格，這使中國棉紗性價(jià)比凸顯，國內(nèi)需求量增加，而國內(nèi)前期拋儲(chǔ)政策的“扭曲”也使中國拋儲(chǔ)價(jià)格大幅上漲，這也支撐了國內(nèi)棉紗走高;也就是說，在全球棉紡產(chǎn)品終端需求沒有明顯好轉(zhuǎn)情況下，國內(nèi)外棉紗價(jià)格堅(jiān)挺和由此形成的相互支撐很大程度上是由棉花原料成本端刺激導(dǎo)致的：但是隨著中國拋儲(chǔ)延遲和全球棉花集中上市臨近，中國和美國棉花價(jià)格均出現(xiàn)明顯回落，依托棉花原料成本端支撐大大弱化，國內(nèi)外棉紗價(jià)格一起走弱;在可預(yù)見未來，如果全球主產(chǎn)棉區(qū)天氣不發(fā)生大的破壞，隨著1

0 months later, the global cotton supply will continue to concentrate, and the cost of cotton yarn will be hard to sustain. The price will return to demand side. Under the background of the difficulty of global terminal demand, the price of internal and external yarn is expected to compete again in the fourth quarter. This will create pressure on domestic and foreign cotton spot and futures prices.

Fourth, the substitution effect of non cotton fibers will continue to strengthen.

The cotton price is higher and the substitution effect is further strengthened. From the chart, we can see that the proportion of pure cotton yarn in India and Pakistan is higher than that in blended yarns, which is also reflected in the proportion of cotton replaced in the countries. In June, the import of pure cotton garments decreased by 2%, while the import of non cotton fabrics decreased by 0.4% compared with the same period last year. The average price of cotton garments fell by 5.6% compared with the same period last year, and the average price of non cotton garments decreased by 3.6% over the same period last year. This shows that the demand for global pure cotton clothing has declined and the replacement of pure cotton has also been strengthened as the global cotton price has reached a high level. In the past few years, the trend of pure cotton being replaced by non cotton fibers has not changed.

The third part, how do we look at the impact of the mid-term international cotton prices on Zheng cotton?

If viewed from the static supply and demand balance sheet, as shown in the following figure, may be in the future cotton new year's back end may be, especially in India cotton planting and harvest time pull long, the next few months, the weather change is still the uncertainty of India production change, but there are also uncertainties. First, in the global economy is still weak, especially the Chinese economic center of gravity continues to fall, inevitable situation, the future cotton spinning terminal demand rate will face a severe test. Second, the international cotton in the medium term is also facing the pressure of China's inventory. In view of this year's experience and lessons, the new cotton annual storage is expected to be smoother than this year. If the March plan of dumping and storage in accordance with the national plan, this will bring pressure on the international cotton prices will be greater than this year. First, one of the factors currently supporting Zheng cotton futures is that some market participants believe that international cotton prices remain strong in the medium and long term.

　　第二，關(guān)鍵在于年度供需平衡表不會(huì)對(duì)整個(gè)棉花年度各個(gè)時(shí)段都有作用，在第四季度，在全球棉花陸續(xù)集中供應(yīng)背景下，中國棉花價(jià)格更多是由中國國內(nèi)自身供需所決定;本年度新疆棉產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)360-370萬噸，內(nèi)地60-70萬噸，本年度新花產(chǎn)量在420-440萬噸，每個(gè)月用棉需求即便按照上限的60萬噸來算，10月份到2017年3月拋儲(chǔ)前(國家計(jì)劃拋儲(chǔ)的時(shí)間)的5個(gè)月只能消耗300萬噸，這還沒有算進(jìn)口的89.4萬噸的進(jìn)口外棉，如果3月份拋儲(chǔ)，余下的棉花怎么消耗?按照國家前期文件表述，國家在新花下市后有輪進(jìn)新花可能，按照今年拋儲(chǔ)量，按市場價(jià)格輪入量可以達(dá)到60萬噸，但是我們必須清楚，國家輪入的目的是什么?優(yōu)化儲(chǔ)備棉質(zhì)量結(jié)構(gòu)和抵制棉花價(jià)格過低，如果新花開秤成本在14500或以上，輪入的可能性幾乎沒有，第一不利于產(chǎn)業(yè)良性發(fā)展，在高價(jià)位輪儲(chǔ)不僅僅給紗廠經(jīng)營帶來壓

The force will also bring hidden dangers to the country. If the spot price of cotton does not drop sharply and sell cotton, it will be difficult to implement the policy of short term storage after the supply of new flowers. That is to say, from October to the first two months of 2017, the supply pressure of cotton will be great. Once the pressure of the supply side is superimposed with the weak demand, once the futures price rises significantly, the futures warehouse receipt pressure will be brought into full play. In the case of the price of zhengmian in January and May, the January contract is expected to be the main target of selling the warehouse receipts in the future.

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The fourth part, what are the other factors that affect the trend of Zheng cotton futures?

Commodity resonance will drive its price trend, especially in the context of current liquidity. The strength of programmed trading has largely exceeded the subjective paction in commodity futures market. Therefore, the kinetic energy and probability of the rise and fall of commodities are larger than before. Therefore, considering the cotton futures investment process, in the fourth quarter, besides commodity property of cotton, the dynamic direction of commodity futures as a whole asset sector is a factor we must consider. Especially, we are not optimistic about the trend of Zhengzhou cotton in the four quarter. We also need to see whether other commodities have bull market energy or stage resonance rising kinetic energy, so as to avoid the risk of single breeds caused by the resonance rise. Zheng cotton futures is a member of commodity futures.

First, from the medium term general direction: Since World War II, the bull market / bear market pformation of commodities has undergone several cycles in the big cycle, and the basic bull market has been 10 years, and then accompanied by a 20 year bear market. At present, we do not think that commodity futures can enter the bull market in the foreseeable future. The reason is that compared with the previous commodity futures bull market: 1, the start of any commodity futures bull market requires a long period of economic recession in the world, leading to the effective elimination of bulk commodity capacity. Once the economy enters a cyclical recovery, the shortage of supply and demand is strong, triggering a commodity bull market.

However, for the moment, the capacity of the supply side of commodities on the global level is stiff and immortal, and it is not effective to clear up the price. The rise of prices will easily lead to an increase in supply stage. At the same time, the global economy is still weak and the effective demand for commodities is not enough. 2, any big cycle bull market must start with the demand side. For example, in the 2000-2011 year bull market cycle, China's leading emerging markets are integrated into the global economy, the process of industrialization is speeding up, the demographic dividend and other factors are important factors, but for the moment, China has entered the middle and late industrialization stage, and the productivity of the developed economies such as the United States has staggered, and at the same time, Europe and Japan are also facing aging.

全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長在未來幾年甚至更長時(shí)間都將陷入低迷的常態(tài)!因此需求端并不支持大宗商品牛市的到來!3、通過對(duì)比歷史上的大宗商品牛市，我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)每次大宗商品的牛市都伴隨著貨幣供應(yīng)的寬松，但是這有一個(gè)前提條件，就是需求端必須給力配合，除了我們上面所說的需求端在相當(dāng)長時(shí)間維持低迷的原因意外，當(dāng)下工業(yè)生產(chǎn)低迷是我們不看好未來需求的一個(gè)重要指標(biāo)， 大宗商品牛市中價(jià)格暴漲階段幾乎都是發(fā)生在工業(yè)生產(chǎn)高速增長的年份，因?yàn)檫@項(xiàng)是大宗商品需求影響最大的子項(xiàng)，而全球經(jīng)濟(jì)由于結(jié)構(gòu)性原因，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)均不處于擴(kuò)張期，中國尤其如此，由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)性失衡還在繼續(xù)，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)尤其是其中的大頭(制作業(yè))還要持續(xù)很長時(shí)間低迷，這種背景下，大宗商品價(jià)格即便在貨幣整體寬松的背景下也難有持續(xù)性上漲動(dòng)能!

The production capacity goes to stock and the supply side begins to shrink. On the basis of this, the upgrading of industrial prices is, to a certain extent, passive. The higher the price of industrial products is, the fiercer the competition and confrontation between the planned economic means and the powerful market forces. In the two power game, the spot price of industrial products is basically strong at the end of Gervi's strength, and has no continuous upward momentum; and for the agricultural products at the end of the supply window, when the weather uncertainty time window is closing down (of course, the South American agricultural crops and India cotton are subject to more prolonged weather tests), the price trend is more dominated by weak demand. Second, the commodity futures in the medium term will not be able to have a systemic bull market performance for a long time in the future. It will be a broader shock. In the fourth quarter, we think that the kinetic energy of the resonance of commodities will basically dry up and the supply side reform will go down.

　　第三，鄭棉期貨作為大宗商品期貨一員，價(jià)格走勢離不開貨幣寬松等政策左右，貨寬和資本市場流動(dòng)性泛濫一直是過去1年左右商品期貨市場一個(gè)重要因素，就未來來看，全球流動(dòng)性泛濫事實(shí)依然存在，但是貨幣寬松政策國內(nèi)外都會(huì)低于市場預(yù)期：國外來看，負(fù)利率環(huán)境給銀行體系帶來的負(fù)面作用和寬松貨幣政策對(duì)于實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激邊際作用不斷遞減使歐日貨幣寬松政策基本難有進(jìn)一步空間，而中國資產(chǎn)泡沫、人民幣貶值等因素也使?jié)撛诘呢泿艑捤烧咄妒蠹善?，難有作為;也就是全球貨幣寬松對(duì)于包括棉花在內(nèi)大宗商品期貨價(jià)格進(jìn)一步刺激有限;只是市場寬松的存量資金利用階段性大宗商品自身產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈因素來進(jìn)行投資考量;在需求整體疲弱背景下，資金對(duì)大宗商品炒作只能只能從供應(yīng)端的天氣破壞、限產(chǎn)、停產(chǎn)等入手，或者從需求端旺季階段性補(bǔ)庫等入手，或者僅

It is only because the absolute price of the stage commodity futures is too low, especially when the futures are heavily priced, but it is different from stocks. If the futures price is pushed up or pushed down, the speculation factor will dissipate, which is different from the stock market. After all, the commodity futures will be restrained and the supply and demand trend of the commodity, especially the warehouse receipt pressure. At present, commodity futures as a whole plate, many varieties have already reached the limit at the supply side, and the demand side is even more boring. In particular, the supply side uncertainty time window of Zheng cotton is closing down, so the demand side will be the main factor for the capital to decide the sale; and the consumption growth rate will continue to bottom out in 8-12 months.

Because the downward pressure on the economy is still very high, prices are also running low, and the overall consumption and export of cotton spinning and clothing are still in a low state.

In short, the short and medium term game around Zheng cotton is still going on. The potential supporting factors are likely to start in early 9, but the effective time is very short, and the intensity will not exceed expectations. In the short term, some game factors will be more realistic when the futures price is higher than the spot price, so it will be more realistic to do well in fund management.