The so-called "slow cow" is a new move that some mainstream experts create a new word to curry favor with others and fool investors.

Why do we say that? If the market has reached the consensus of some experts, and has been widely recognized by investors, especially the widely recognized institutions, then it means that the sooner the stock is bought, the lower the price, the easier it is for investors to make profits, the more late the purchase, the higher the price, and the less profit the investors have. The experts should have no objection. In the past 16 years, some experts and media have liked a word, that is, "slow cow", which means that the smooth cow may have been opened.

If the experts have no objection,

是一個(gè)羊群化效應(yīng)非常濃郁的市場(chǎng)，慢牛一傳十十傳百，大家就會(huì)競(jìng)相趕早進(jìn)場(chǎng)，紛紛買(mǎi)進(jìn)股票，因?yàn)橘I(mǎi)進(jìn)就等于盈利，而且是無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的收益，在資產(chǎn)慌下還有比慢牛更好的資產(chǎn)配置嗎?即使市場(chǎng)羊群化不明顯，如果市場(chǎng)達(dá)成共識(shí)后市一定是緩慢上漲的，資本市場(chǎng)就成了無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益了，投資者也會(huì)提前下手買(mǎi)進(jìn)股票，從而快速推漲股市，形成快牛，而不是猶疑不決踟躇場(chǎng)外，股市就會(huì)出現(xiàn)一輪快速暴漲，從而出現(xiàn)瘋牛走勢(shì)，而不是專家們認(rèn)可的慢牛走勢(shì)，只會(huì)在大家不看好后市的情況下，大家存在巨大分歧下，股市才可能走的遲疑不決，漲漲跌跌，但是大家存在巨大分歧下，很多場(chǎng)內(nèi)資金就會(huì)選擇離場(chǎng)，就像16年上半年一樣，股指上揚(yáng)高度是存有疑慮的，股指之所以能漲到3100點(diǎn)以上，僅僅是市場(chǎng)博弈的結(jié)果嗎?其中有沒(méi)有神秘資金在刻意引導(dǎo)，在托住指數(shù)，難道未來(lái)

For a long time, does the Chinese stock market need to keep the national team constantly protected?

　　14年以來(lái)中國(guó)政府為了加大直接融資比重，化解金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，為了讓資本市場(chǎng)能夠承擔(dān)更多支持實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的重任，營(yíng)造了一個(gè)政策市，首先就是授意某財(cái)經(jīng)報(bào)紙?jiān)谥匾恢猛瞥鲋匕醯膱?bào)道，向投資者描繪出一副宏偉的長(zhǎng)線資金藍(lán)圖，有多少多少長(zhǎng)線資金可以入市，接著是鼓吹改革牛國(guó)家牛，營(yíng)造了一個(gè)國(guó)家牛的政策氛圍輿論氛圍，讓改革牛國(guó)家牛深入人心，為投資者所普遍接受，投資者認(rèn)為股市走牛有政策背書(shū)，有國(guó)家背書(shū)，當(dāng)時(shí)流行的話就是俠之大者為國(guó)接盤(pán)，結(jié)果如何?，投資者失去了理性，忘記了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，大家不顧一切的進(jìn)入股市，而且是加杠桿的進(jìn)入股市，國(guó)家牛改革牛成為大水牛，大瘋牛，接著就是超級(jí)大熊襲來(lái)，千股跌停成為世界資本市場(chǎng)奇觀，讓投資者損失慘重，6000萬(wàn)投資者目前依然高位站崗，很多中產(chǎn)家庭虧得一塌糊頭。

The media and experts publicize the lesson of the national cattle reform, which is painful. In the same sense, if the trend of the bull market is publicised by the experts media, the public opinion will be brought to the public. Once investors have recognized the trend of the bull market in the future, there will be a National bull endorsement, which is different from the 15 year reform. Once investors have given up their vigilance and forget the high risk characteristics of the market, there will be obvious herding effect. We may repeat the same mistakes in history. Regardless of our risk bearing capacity, we will compete for more risks and gains in the capital market.

Because investor sentiment, investor investment process is not controlled by experts, in fact, experts can not control the market trend.

Now the market is twists and turns, that is, the divergence between the market and the competition of the funds to protect the disk.

What is it again?

Is there an expert who can say that exactly? What is the accuracy of a year's rise? What's the rate of increase in a year?

慢牛說(shuō)法在中國(guó)已經(jīng)延續(xù)了很久，以16年為例，很多所謂專家都認(rèn)為自己預(yù)判對(duì)了慢牛走勢(shì)，筆者無(wú)法知道這些專家自認(rèn)為預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)了慢牛是怎么自吹自擂出來(lái)的，首先到目前為止，上證綜指是下跌的，而且跌幅不小，15年最后一個(gè)交易日收?qǐng)?bào)于3539.18點(diǎn)，上禮拜五是3125.32點(diǎn)，下跌413.86點(diǎn)，跌幅14.65%，可以說(shuō)是熊市，與慢牛毫不搭界，而且熊冠世界，但如果從最低點(diǎn)2638.30點(diǎn)算起，則是上漲了487.02點(diǎn)，漲幅18.46%，基本上算得上一個(gè)中級(jí)反彈的力度，但是期間的過(guò)程異常慘烈，難以用慢牛來(lái)評(píng)說(shuō)，當(dāng)然一定要不看過(guò)程只看結(jié)果筆者也無(wú)能為力，只好認(rèn)栽，但至少不是健康慢牛，我們踢開(kāi)很多交易日的暴跌甚至千股跌停不說(shuō)，就是第一波反彈到3097.96點(diǎn)之后也跌倒了2781.24點(diǎn)，可謂跌幅不小，但從此次后上漲基本順利，雖然幾度測(cè)試2800點(diǎn)支撐但都是有驚無(wú)險(xiǎn)，目前上漲大約3000

Come on.

It can be said that the slow cow, but the follow-up trend, many variables remain.

As far as this wave is concerned, I think there is a lot of difference from the mainstream understanding. That is, the driving force does not come from value investment, not from the bank insurance broker, and the bank's stock price has been adjusted. Although the index has been innovating, the price of many bank stocks still does not exceed the high point in August 15th. Instead, it comes from the concept of placards, the concept of stock conversion and the concept of reform. The concept of high turnover is still the main concept of speculation. During the period, many stock markets have been questioned by the stock market. The price of shares in Sichuan has doubled several times, and the price of the stock exchange has doubled.

From Sichuan's double horse, Jijia, Mei Yan and auspicious cattle stocks, the market is hard to judge by using slow cows, and can not be interpreted by healthy cows. Some are just malicious and crazy speculation of the market. Sichuan has become a monster of the two horses, and Mei Yan is the best weapon to cut the leek.

From the real circulation market value, the turnover rate is surprisingly high. Is this the preparation for long-term shareholding? It is also a speculation, but the speculation is shifted from small cap stocks to super large cap stocks, and it is hard to find value investment.

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The level of valuation is reasonable. Long term holding can get higher than risk-free return. Now, the risk free yield of the ten years is about 2.8%. However, as the Fed's interest rate increases, the Chinese government recognizes the harm of asset bubbles and has begun to tighten its monetary policy appropriately. The risk free return rate may reach 3% in the future, and the corresponding P / E ratio should be 33 times.

And now the median price earnings ratio is about 50 times. This valuation level has been significantly higher, not long term investment value, long line holding risk is huge, if the economy is in a period of high growth.

The profit level is in the era of high growth, so we can rely on high growth to resolve the overvalued value. At present, the economy is in the L type. In the next few years, it is impossible to restore the high growth rate. It is all L type. There are many differences between the current economy and the bottom market. Some well-known economists also do not recognize that the economy has bottomed up.

GF is more pessimistic. After all, it is believed that after all, the A share is the main component of the profits. It believes that once the pressure on the cost of upstream raw materials rises to these industries, the gross profit margin of A shares will be under downward pressure, thus ending the three year gross margin improvement trend of A shares.

Maintain the judgement of the slow bear in the future.

In the first half of this year, China's economic growth rate can be maintained at 6.7% relative to the high degree of real estate. Real estate skyrocketing has led to a marked improvement in the real estate investment driven infrastructure and real estate related sub sectors. At present, a new round of real estate regulation has begun. In the second half of this year, real estate investment will fall moderately, and the economy will depend more on state investment, while the central fiscal deficit has increased to 3%. Fiscal stimulus is limited.

Assume too many economic indicators that should not be borne by the stock market, such as supporting industrial policies, raising the proportion of direct financing, eliminating financial risks, and reducing financing to support small and medium-sized enterprises. Since the stock market has undertaken too many obligations, the stock market has the meaning of dedication. Under such circumstances, the stock market's financing tasks seem to be extremely urgent and heavy. In the future, new market capitalization and new funds may be difficult to reconcile. Under the increasing market new chips, the value will naturally be gradually diluted, and the value will naturally drop. The existence of high valuations is unreasonable. The valuation has further room to fall. The rise of the stock index comes from the contribution of new shares. With the increase of the total market value, the contribution of new shares to the index is smaller and smaller, and the pressure on the stock index to go higher and higher is greater and greater. Another important reason why Chinese stock market is hard to find is the positioning of stock market.

I agree with the blue book of the Academy of social sciences that the failure of the "great leap forward" of the stock market has led to a retrogression in the marketization process of China's stock market.

"If we do not respect the inherent laws of market development and imagine that we can achieve instant success and quick profits and overspeed the ability to overdraft capital market, the consequences will be serious and terrible.

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Perhaps many mainstream experts believe that banks are

The representative has a rare investment value and plays a mainstay role in the stock index. However, the fundamental problem of banks is that there is no obvious turning point in bad loans. Some banks seem to have some signs of slowing down, but some banks are still increasing at a relatively fast rate. They can not see the turning point. The official 1.75% bad loans are definitely not real bad loans. They have reached a consensus. But the key is how much real bad loans are? 5% or 10%, no one can say clearly.

The banking downturn is a downward trend in the macro economy leading to asset quality downside. The other is the central bank's interest rate cut, resulting in net interest margin reduction and liquidity overflowing, resulting in asset panic. The latter reason also hit the insurance industry. According to the data released by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, the first three quarters of the year, the insurance company expected total profit of 156 billion 960 million yuan, down 87 billion 59 million yuan, down 35.68%.

Three quarterly reports show that China life, Xinhua insurance and China Pacific Insurance achieved net profit of 13 billion 528 million yuan, 4 billion 786 million yuan and 8 billion 829 million yuan respectively, down 60%, 44.6% and 41.3% respectively.

Share prices are under pressure.

The main reason for the securities companies to rely on the weather is to see the volume and the two meat color. At present, the two cities are still in a downturn. The scale of the two market is about 90 million yuan, which is not the same as before.

As a leader in the first half of the year, real estate performance may drop to varying degrees. The Central Plains real estate research department statistics show that the 132 listed housing enterprises in the first three quarters of the total business revenue is 878 billion 50 million, net profit is only 68 billion 780 million, the average profit margin fell to 7.8%; in the first half of 2016, 130 Housing enterprises net profit rate of 8.15%, and even in the relatively low turnover in 2015, the profit margin also has 10.1%.

The real estate sector's future valuation level is very heavy.

The market has always regarded Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong as a major positive consideration, but this is the mainstream media mainstream experts' point of view, funds such as water, water to the low flow how can go upside down, in the AH premium rate of up to 124%, Shenzhen Hong Kong Tongli good who is bad, who I think it is clear at a glance.

Some investment banks predict that there will be 600 billion yuan for gold in the future. This is not a small sum.