The traditional peak season of "golden three silver four" is about to go away, and the cotton market is dull.

With the policy of cotton reserve coming out in April 23rd, will there be an opportunity for cotton futures?

Judging from the market appearance, the current cotton market is not prosperous, mainly due to the insipid purchase and sale in the market, and the cautious operation of buyers and sellers.

造成當(dāng)前局面的根本原因有以下幾點(diǎn)：一、短期國(guó)內(nèi)供過(guò)于求格局仍未打破，根據(jù)國(guó)家棉花市場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)，截至4月4日，全國(guó)新棉銷售率59.5%（其中新疆銷售率為58.3%），基本與去年持平，但目前大部分資源主要集中在貿(mào)易商環(huán)節(jié)，供應(yīng)寬松的局面仍有待隨時(shí)間改變；二、下游產(chǎn)品端消化緩慢，庫(kù)存回升，加之近期進(jìn)口紗大量增加，國(guó)內(nèi)紗線價(jià)格承壓小幅下降，而且棉紡織企業(yè)各環(huán)節(jié)嚴(yán)格控制庫(kù)存，市場(chǎng)觀望氣氛濃厚；三、從3月份開(kāi)始，儲(chǔ)備棉開(kāi)啟公檢，輪出消息傳出后，下游紡企等待低價(jià)國(guó)儲(chǔ)棉補(bǔ)庫(kù)意愿強(qiáng)烈，部分企業(yè)減緩采購(gòu)節(jié)奏或減少訂單數(shù)量，棉花購(gòu)銷節(jié)奏難有提升，加之增發(fā)80萬(wàn)噸滑準(zhǔn)稅進(jìn)口棉配額公告發(fā)布，牽制了前期市場(chǎng)的非理性炒作，而業(yè)者保持觀望的心態(tài)也較為濃厚。

The round out situation and the supply and demand situation of cotton market were filled with hope, and the second round was 1 million tons of cotton reserves, which is much lower than the annual output of nearly 3 million in the past year. This year, the reserve cotton market is "less than enough". Thirdly, according to the feedback from some Treasury stores, the current reserve resources are mainly low grade real estate cotton, just to meet the market's demand for low-quality cotton, and the early market has basically digested the news, so the impact of this round on the market is limited. Fourthly, the domestic spot cotton prices slowly move upward, and the cost of holding cotton merchants' warehousing and capital interest increases gradually. The author believes that cotton market opportunities or mainly in the following aspects: first, the cotton rotation announcement referred to the relevant departments of the state will be based on the actual cotton reserves.

Finally, the Sino US trade consultation is developing well, and the probability of reaching relevant agreements in the later period is higher. Especially, the market has repeatedly mentioned China or implemented the specific rules for purchasing the US cotton, which has been favorable for the external market and the whole international market, and is also expected to boost domestic cotton prices.

From this point of view, opportunities for future cotton remain, and operators can plan appropriate plans ahead of schedule. At the same time, we must pay close attention to the regulation and control of relevant policies, and timely determine the purchase and sale strategy according to specific conditions.