Appreciation, appreciation, appreciation...

At the 103rd Canton Fair held in Guangzhou, this is the two word that most journalists heard from participating enterprises.

In April 10th, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9916, announcing that the RMB exchange rate officially entered the "6" era.

Since the reform, the appreciation of RMB has gone from small step to fast run.

In the first 3 months of this year, the RMB exchange rate increased by about 4%, with an annual rate of over 15%.

China's manufacturing enterprises seem to be experiencing the most difficult time in the past two years.

In the market, the expectation of RMB appreciation in 2008 is around 10%, pushing some enterprises to the brink of life and death.

"I think 1/3 of the labor intensive industries like clothing, textiles, shoes and hats and toys will face the pain of failure."

Chang Lin, director of the Institute of enterprise management and decision science, Guangdong Academy of social sciences.

Breaking the psychological barrier of enterprises

The RMB is running fast, and the damage to the export industry is becoming more and more obvious.

Export figures for the first quarter of 2008 showed that exports grew by 6.4% over the same period last year and the trade surplus decreased by 10.6%.

"RMB breaking" 7 "has completely broken the psychological barrier of enterprises.

First textile network president Fan Min said in an interview.

"It's coming too fast."

Chen Zhexi, vice president of Wenzhou Tamar shoes industry, said.

The most direct impact of RMB appreciation on enterprises is the decline in profits.

Chen Zhexi calculated an account. If he talks about the good price with foreign businessmen, it is calculated according to exchange rate 7.4000, but when the end of the month is recovered, the exchange rate will drop to around 7.2000, and the business of 20 thousand dollars will lose 4000 yuan directly.

Although the exchange rate factor has been taken into account in the pricing of contracts, the pricing of contracts is extremely difficult because the appreciation of the renminbi is too fast.

"At present, when we talk about prices with foreign businessmen, we have calculated them according to 6.8.

And only pick up some recent orders. "

Chen Zhexi said.

Now, the general worry in the market is how can Chinese exporters appreciate?

Most companies reduce capacity

There are no clear statistics on how many businesses are closed.

But reports about the closure of Guangdong businesses have not ceased.

Lin Pingfan bluntly said that in the labor intensive industries such as clothing, textiles, shoes and hats and toys, 1/3 enterprises will face the pain of bankruptcy.

"When the central parity of RMB against the US dollar reaches 6.5, there will be 25% to 30% of the textile enterprises being forced to pform."

Fan Min stressed, "this pformation includes elimination, including scale reduction."

According to his prediction, under the current situation, 50% of enterprises will be closed down or pformed before 2010. Only in this way can the textile industry upgrade the road of light industry and succeed.

It is an indisputable fact that textile companies are having a hard time.

"But how many factories are closing down? There is no accurate data at present.

According to our observation, more and more small and medium-sized textile enterprises have adjusted their business ideas, such as reducing production capacity.

Cao Xinyu said.

Cao Xinyu said that clothing and textile enterprises have been producing capacity for a long time.

He said that after the Spring Festival this year, textile and garment enterprises are generally easy to recruit.

"In fact, the number of jobs is reduced. Many companies used one thousand workers before, but now they only use eight hundred.

On the surface, we can not see the factory closing down, but after such a large number of factories, there are surplus workers. It is very easy for factories to recruit workers. "

It is not only small and medium-sized enterprises but also large enterprises that have difficulty in operation.

For example, Shandong cherry Textile Group, as a result of insolvency, was annexed by Shandong Ruyi group.

Cao Xinyu said that 1/3 of the enterprises above scale, their profits above the average profit level of the industry, 1/3 can not reach this level, and their profits are less than 1%.

"This part of the business is now under greater impact, and if the renminbi continues to appreciate, they will face pressure to survive."

Emergency investigation by Ministry of Commerce

As an important indicator of China's foreign trade and economic cooperation, the Ministry of Commerce will also pay attention to the export trade during the exhibition period, especially for traditional export enterprises such as clothing, toys, shoes and caps, and hold seminars to listen to the views of enterprises.

In April 16th, Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, attended the Canton Fair. He invited some local commerce departments, import and export chambers of Commerce and business representatives to participate in the Symposium on foreign trade situation to understand the current situation of China's foreign trade development. The state's macroeconomic regulation and control policy will be adjusted according to the situation.

With regard to the impact of the accelerated appreciation of Renminbi on export enterprises, some experts suggest that even if the RMB continues to appreciate, bankruptcy and bankruptcy will not be possible.

He describes Guangdong business operators with "very, very shrewdly". "After more than a year of slow appreciation, they have learned how to deal with them, for example, when they sign contracts, they should consider the exchange rate changes and try to offset the risk of appreciation as much as possible."

Lin Pingfan also said that in this sense, we should thank the state for persisting in the slow appreciation and winning the difficult time for enterprises and society.

Lin Pingfan revealed that he did a lot of research in Guangdong, and saw that the bankrupt enterprises also had, but most of them were shrinking in production.