Where Is The Way To Buy Cotton That Is Not Ideal?
Since the announcement of the national cotton purchase and storage information, on the one hand, the state has collected the price of 12600 yuan per ton, on the other hand, it has been matching and futures falling continuously, and the spot market price has also fallen. The price of Zhengzhou CF901 cotton has dropped to 10625 yuan / ton in November 7th.
This situation is, of course, affected by the global financial crisis. Cotton consumption in the world has really become a problem. But on the other hand, it is a problem of market liquidity, or the buyer has lost confidence. First of all, the acquisition and processing enterprises of cotton are afraid of buying because of difficulties and difficulties. Secondly, textile and trading enterprises are afraid to buy because of falling prices every day. From the perspective of State purchasing and storage, it is easy to see that the state is giving a signal to stabilize the market, but the result is not very satisfactory.
Why can such a result be made?
第一，現(xiàn)在棉花市場(chǎng)的交割標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不統(tǒng)一，國(guó)家收儲(chǔ)、期貨市場(chǎng)和撮合市場(chǎng)的交割標(biāo)準(zhǔn)都不一樣，而目前三個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)棉花的價(jià)格也相距很大。沒(méi)有一個(gè)價(jià)格是一個(gè)國(guó)內(nèi)都認(rèn)同的權(quán)威價(jià)格。
第二，收儲(chǔ)門檻高。對(duì)于新疆棉來(lái)說(shuō)，符合標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的棉花比較多，造成收儲(chǔ)一分鐘成交完畢，反而促進(jìn)了中間環(huán)節(jié)去拍指標(biāo)。而內(nèi)地棉符合標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的棉花少，反而流拍不少。由于市場(chǎng)參與主體不全面，這種收儲(chǔ)價(jià)格不盡公平性。
第三，收儲(chǔ)和撮合交易時(shí)間短，價(jià)格不具備連續(xù)性。
第四，由于日收儲(chǔ)量固定性，從而使售賣者數(shù)量具有指標(biāo)的性質(zhì)，容易造成額度轉(zhuǎn)讓，有滋生腐敗的可能性，不符合市場(chǎng)公平競(jìng)爭(zhēng)原則。
How can we better play the guiding role of State purchasing and storage prices? Of course, we should regulate and control the authority, continuity, openness and anticipation of price formation. There is no doubt that the futures market has this function. So how can futures prices have the anticipation, that is, to achieve the purpose of stabilizing the price of national macro-control? In my opinion, in fact, it is quite simple to change the delivery standard of futures into a new system of cotton deliveries.
Why do we say so? This is because, as far as the futures market of Zhengzhou is concerned, we see that speculative forces are pressing the market, while the enterprises that are short of real hedging are very few. This can be clearly seen from the forecast volume of Zhengzhou warehouse list daily. Up to the end of this week, 247 cotton sheets of Zhengan cotton warehouse have been generated, that is, 4940 tons, and 457 effective forecasts and 9140 tons. CF901's unilateral holdings amounted to more than 130 thousand tons. Of course, from the Zhengzhou stock exchange's position ranking, we can see that speculative capital has become the main air of Zheng cotton, which is contrary to the traditional speculative mode dominated by speculative capital. Zheng cotton has excessive speculation. I believe this is also an important reason for the continuous decline of the futures market.
If only cotton is allowed to be delivered by new system pactions. This will echo each other with the state's purchase and storage price, and the bull will make market arbitrage with the purchase and storage price. The bull's confidence will increase greatly and not worry too much about the losses. The hedging enterprises can also make production and processing acquisitions according to their own production plans, and do not need to concentrate on the sale of state reserves; while Zheng cotton's speculative short sellers face greater risk of delivery, and they will not overexert market profits.
Of course, some friends will worry that speculative funds will flip over and take advantage of this opportunity to make a forced trading. But in fact, this possibility is small, because there are many conditions for this market, there are many risks in operation. To take a step back, is this opportunity to be a chance for the business of the insurance companies? Why not the goal of the country? From the perspective of industrial development, it is a good period for cotton textile integration. From the reform process of the new national system, the big cotton balding is the trend of the times, and the small cotton will eventually be eliminated. And is there any better time and conditions to promote this reform?
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