從國外市場來看，美國和日本消費持續(xù)恢復較為確定，但歐盟消費能否持續(xù)恢復還存在較大不確定性。慶幸的是，我國紡織服裝行業(yè)在國際市場仍具有較強競爭力，對出口的依賴程度也在下降。

From the domestic market, urbanization and consumption upgrading are still the two pillars of the continued development of the textile and garment industry. We expect that the textile and garment retail sales will still maintain a growth rate of about 20% this year.

From the perspective of supply, because the price of production factors such as raw materials and labor force is increasing rapidly, the competition among enterprises is more intense, and the speed of capacity expansion of textile and garment industry is generally decreasing.

In the fourth part, we analyzed the supply and demand of the main raw materials of cotton and chemical fiber in the textile and garment industry, and concluded that the 2 quarter is the turning point of cotton price and chemical fiber price, which will drop in the second half year.

Generally speaking, the business environment of textile and garment industry is improving.

For the textile and garment industry, the main disadvantage is that the appreciation of the renminbi may be launched again.

The mainstream view is that the revaluation of the renminbi is more likely to start again for economic rebalancing and inflation control, but considering that the global economic outlook is still uncertain, the pace is expected to be gradual.

Because of the small and medium capacity, the profit rate of textile and garment industry is relatively low, which is only 3-5%.

According to our calculations, if the RMB appreciation is 1%, the profit margin will be reduced by 1 percentage points. At that time, the environment of the small and medium sized production capacity will be more difficult, and the internal integration of the industry will be accelerated.

Because this year's inflation is not obvious, manufacturing leaders rely on technology, scale and other advantages to continue to expand production capacity and optimize the product structure of the difficulty is not large; brand enterprises rely on the leveraged domestic consumer market, with brand, channel and other advantages, the product price increases, sales revenue growth continues to enjoy the industry premium.

In the long run, the appreciation of RMB is conducive to the growth of the industry, but the short-term impact on the performance of the listed companies is quite obvious. Therefore, we give the "neutral" investment rating of the textile and garment industry, and suggest that investors pay more attention to the brand listed companies facing the domestic market, such as