A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the profit of the industrial enterprises in the first half of November. In 1-11 months, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size reached 38828 billion yuan, up 49.4% over the same period last year. In 39 industries, 38 industries increased profits compared with the same period last year, and 1 industries lost profits. The profit of chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased 1.2 times compared with the same period last year, which rose to the top of the industry.

Analysts pointed out that the financial crisis and climate disaster led to a decline in the international cotton planting area. cotton Supply shortage, chemical fiber industry boom significantly improved, polyester fiber and viscose industry in the chemical fiber industry directly benefited from the tight supply of cotton, considering that polyester raw materials come from petrochemical raw materials, and viscose raw materials from cotton lint, so polyester industry is the most profitable sub industry; spandex as the "MSG" of textiles, its demand and other textile materials have linkage effect, spandex industry has strong ability to raise prices and raw material prices are relatively small, so the spandex industry will also enjoy high prosperity.

As a rising field in the chemical fiber industry, aramid, carbon fiber, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber and other high-performance fibers are the strategic emerging industries that are mainly developed by the state. The development space is huge, and the high difference fiber and environmentally friendly fiber will also be the development direction of the chemical fiber industry.

Yesterday, the market shook down, the chemical fiber plate overall dropped -0.93%, but compared with more plates, has seen a smaller decline. Among them, Jilin chemical fiber, Mei Da shares, *ST Lianhua, Yantai spandex and Halliday are in the red market, and the Jilin chemical fiber company, which is the biggest plus, is up 4.05%.

Institutional view:

BOC looks good at Jiangnan. High fiber 。 The sanitary napkins were measured. Diapers After the demand for products, BOC found that diapers and adult incontinence will be the key to demand for ES fiber in the next five years. It is estimated that the demand for ES fiber will increase by 200 thousand tons in the next five years. The company's market share of polyester wool tops more than 60%, and has strong market pricing power. Gross profit margin of products since 2007

Maintaining over 30%, the technical transformation of hollow ball polyester top is being actively carried out. In addition, the 4080 fiber produced by the company is widely used in hard cotton and other fields. Gross profit margin can reach more than 30%, and the company is currently in the stage of technology accumulation. It is estimated that the earnings per share of the company in the 2010-2012 years are 0.41 yuan, 0.55 yuan and 0.73 yuan respectively. Taking into account the leading position of the company and the growth rate of net profit in the next three years, it is expected to exceed 30%. The Bank of China has given the stock price earnings ratio of 25 times in 2010 and the target price of 10.15 yuan, and for the first time, it bought a rating.

China Merchants Securities believes that Shenyang chemical industry grows high and enters strong cyclical nature. It is understood that Shenyang chemical company's main business has four pieces, one is to produce PVC paste resin based chlor alkali chemical business; the two is DCC refining unit, mainly produces steam.

Oil and propylene; three is the production of acrylic acid and ester and propylene oxide from self propene, and the four is the newly launched CPP plant, which mainly produces ethylene and propylene. The CPP project provides flexibility in the petrochemical boom cycle. Under the current product price, the CPP project can provide roughly 10 million pre tax profits a month. DCC has provided a relatively stable profit. Since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism in early 2009, the domestic refining industry has seen a favorable turn. In the first half of the year, the DCC device contributed nearly one hundred million of the pre tax profit, which is the main source of profit for the company.

It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2009-2011 years are 0.19, 0.43 and 0.63 yuan respectively. Although the valuation is not cheap, its high growth and high resilience to the petrochemical cycle still have investment value.