The US Retail Federation (NRF) expects sales to grow by 2.8% at the end of the year, to $465 billion 600 million, though less than 5.2% in the same period last year, but still slightly higher than the average growth of 2.6% in November and December over the past 10 years.

Matthew Shay, the president and chief executive of the alliance, said that the current unfavorable economic environment, especially the high unemployment rate, will have a significant impact on the biggest shopping season in the year.

However

In explaining the organization's forecast, Shay said that although the strength of the recovery is still worrying, there is no doubt this year.

Sales in the year-end holiday shopping season in 2008 and 2009 fell by 4.4% and 0.4% respectively, although the growth expected at the end of this year is lower than last year's level, but it will continue the strength of last year.

DDT consulting firm (Deloitte)'s management consulting firm also expects growth of the same magnitude by the end of this year. The company predicts that retail sales will grow 2.5% to 3% from the end of November to next January, down from 5.9% of last year's shopping season.

Cohen Marshal Cohen, an industry analyst at NPD Group market research, said he expects the end of the year.

Compared with the optimistic atmosphere at the beginning of the year, the industry's forecast is relatively conservative. At that time, it was encouraged by strong sales in the end of 2010, and the industry believed that the economy would start to recover, and the job market would regain its growth momentum and consumer confidence began to rise.

But then the situation is quite different from expectations. The European debt crisis and the uncertainty of the US economy have caused the stock market to go down, so analysts' prediction of this shopping season has become relatively conservative.