Look at frost leaves, know the autumn sky, the sky is high and cloud is thin, -2012 mid year.

Industry investment strategy

Short-term:

Although the consumer satisfaction index has recovered slightly, the per capita income growth is still slow, and there is a lack of support for consumption.

The reasons for the slowdown are as follows: 1) the base in 2011 is relatively high, compared to 2012 will slow down in 2011; 2) the main driving force for retail growth in 2011 is the year-on-year growth in average prices, based on our macro team forecast that 2012 inflation will be 2.8%. We believe that the impetus for the growth of 2012 retail prices will turn prices into sales, while the volume of sales growth is limited.

In the long run: since the per capita GDP exceeds US $3000, the structure and habits of our consumers have begun to change.

By the end of 2010, China

The scale of the market is close to 400 billion yuan, which is about 3 times that of 2000.

It is estimated that by 2020, the number of middle class and affluent consumers in China will increase from 50 million in 2010 to 140 million in 2020, and the total amount of personal consumption will double.

China will be the second largest consumer market in the world after the US.

Sub sectors:

1) in 2012, it will become the watershed of sports sub industry. Through a year's "de Stocking" measures, the performance of Lining and China will take the lead and the Jinjiang brand will not start soon.

Only if we have the ability to control the retail network and inventory can we eventually become the winner of the industry.

2) men's clothing industry still has long-term growth momentum and development opportunities. Its unique industry characteristics doomed the men's clothing sub industry will not follow the sports sub industry's footsteps.

3) after experiencing the financial crisis in 2008 and the backlog of international sports brand stocks, the women's shoes industry knows better how to deal with crises and how to prevent them in advance.

The multi brand management strategy has added a lot of defensive characteristics to women's shoes companies.

Preferred stock: 00891.HK, 01234.HK and BELLE (01880.HK).