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GDP Growth This Year Will Maintain An Upward Trend Of 10%.

2008/4/21 15:42:00 61

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GDP Growth This Year Can Maintain An Upward Trend Of 10%.

This year, our country's GDP growth rate will be lower than last year, such as the moderation of up to 10%, inflation in the first half of the second half of the second half of low, the level of the year may continue to rise, up to 6.5% to 7%.

Ha Ji Ming, chief economist of CICC, made the above statement on this year's macroeconomic situation last weekend.

He said that China's exchange rate appreciation will accelerate significantly this year, the appreciation rate will reach at least 10%. At the same time, monetary policy is still tight, and the deposit reserve rate will rise from 2 to 3 times, but interest rates will rise at most 1 times.

"The US economy is expected to come out of the trough in 2009, and the dollar will rebound at the end of the year, when global inflation will ease significantly."

Ha Jiming said that for the current inflation problem in China, we should adopt a policy of "tight money to prevent inflation and wide fiscal support for inflation".

Single factor promotes economic growth

In the latest Macroeconomic Research Report of CICC, Ha Jiming described the current macroeconomic situation in China by "wandering at the crossroads".

He believes that, in the context of the US economic recession and global inflationary pressure, domestic economic growth will slow down compared with 2007. However, due to the promotion of many one-time factors such as Olympic Games, government succession and reconstruction after snow disaster, GDP growth in China is expected to remain at around 10% in 2008, but economic growth in 2009 will likely be further slowed down by "soft landing".

Ha Jiming said that from the past 20 years of data statistics, we can find that the fixed assets investment will be high in the year of the government's change. Investment will rebound in the months after the disaster, and the large consumer industries such as wholesale, retail, accommodation, catering, electricity, pportation and pportation will also show a marked increase.

"Driven by these one-time factors, consumption growth will steadily increase and investment will remain high, thus creating strong support for GDP growth."

In terms of exports, Ha Jiming believes that the US economic recession and the depreciation of the US dollar will not only directly inhibit China's export growth, inhibit the profits of export enterprises, but also indirectly affect other countries, thereby reducing the import of these countries from China.

In addition, the decline of China's exports will directly lead to a decline in national income and reduce consumption and investment.

Global inflation eased in 2009

"The pressure of global inflation is increasing significantly, and China is no exception."

Ha Jiming said that domestic inflation is mainly caused by three factors, one is the rise in international commodity prices, the two is domestic food inflation, and the three is China's monetary expansion for many years.

The rise in commodity prices is directly related to the continued depreciation of the US dollar and the decline in US interest rates.

He believes that the depreciation of the US dollar is far from bottoming out. It is expected that the depreciation of the US dollar will continue until the end of this year or early next year. During this period, international commodity prices and grain prices will continue to remain high.

At the same time, domestic liquidity will tighten compared with last year.

"The US economy is expected to get out of the trough in 2009, interest rates will stabilize and pick up, and the dollar will rebound at bottom."

Ha Jiming has predicted that global inflation will ease significantly.

He also mentioned that the appreciation of RMB will help to curb inflation for a long time, but the short-term impact is small. The nominal effective exchange rate of RMB will rise to 5%-10%, CPI growth will only decrease by 0.2%- 0.4% after half a year, and 1.5%-3% will drop by three years later.

"The global inflation problem can not be solved by a country's monetary policy, and a policy can not achieve the dual goal of curbing inflation and promoting growth simultaneously."

Ha Jiming said that in order to control inflation, our country should lay a good fiscal "umbrella". We should tighten the money to prevent inflation and finance inflation. We should implement flexible fiscal policy and effectively control inflation by adjusting fiscal revenue and expenditure and monetary policy.

//cn.jxmmtv.