Textile Industry Exports Continue To Slump, Retail Sales Remain High.
Industry revenue growth slowed down and profit growth fell sharply. From 1 to August, the industry realized an income of 2 trillion and 130 billion yuan and a total profit of 73 billion 960 million yuan, representing an increase of 15.46% and 3.20% respectively over the same period last year. Revenue growth slowed 7.40 percentage points year-on-year, and profit growth fell 34.19 percentage points year-on-year.
The decline in European markets has led to a continued downturn in exports this month. In September, the growth rate of the US dollar denominated export volume dropped to 1.85%, and the total export growth from 1 to September increased to 8.12%. The decline in the European market has become the main cause of the overall export downturn this month, with the growth rate of clothing products exported to Europe has slipped to 14.04%.
Retail sales remain high, and department stores are slowing down. Retail sales remain high and continue to be higher than market expectations. In September, the retail sales increased by 28.01% compared with the same period last year. The total growth rate increased from 1 to September to 25.91%. But in the 1 to August, the sales of clothing goods in large department stores in China reached 65 billion 657 million yuan, up 20.81% over the same period last year, but the growth rate dropped 1.54 percentage points year-on-year.
Down the industry revenue and profit growth expectations. The export growth rate of 08 years and 09 years was reduced by 8% and 5%, while the growth rate of domestic textile and garment retail sales was 24% and 18%. In the 08 and 09 years, the growth rate of industry revenue was reduced to 14% and 10%, and the total profit growth rate was reduced to 0% and.5% respectively.
The performance of Listed Companies in the textile industry was 1 - 3Q negative growth, and the performance of key companies was good. Taking 48 listed companies as a sample, the total income of listed companies increased to 5.81% in the 1.3 quarter, and profits fell 7.94% compared to the same period last year. The gross interest rate is 15.65%, and the net interest rate is 4.04%. Among the 17 listed companies that we focused on, we realized 23 billion 887 million yuan in the 1.3 quarter of 2008, an increase of 20.28% over the same period last year, and realized a net profit of 1 billion 786 million yuan, an increase of 36.83% over the same period last year. The average gross profit margin is 24.03%, and the net interest rate is 9%.
Industry investment strategy: maintain the industry's "neutral" rating. At present, the valuation range of the industry has slipped to 09 PE5.15X. In contrast to 1~3Q's performance and its future expectations, we believe that the key companies, especially PE10.20X, a brand clothing company based on domestic sales, are 09 years of their safety valuation area. According to this standard, the seven wolves, the wedding birds and the American state clothing are added to the rating, and Jiangnan high fiber and Weixing share "buy" rating.
Weixing shares (002003): buy rating, 08~10 EPS is expected to be 0.8, 0.96, 1.17 yuan, target price: 12.48 yuan.
Jiangnan high fiber (600527): buy rating, 08~10 EPS is expected to be 0.27, 0.35, 0.45 yuan, target price: 4.55 yuan.
Mei Bang dress (002269): overweight rating, 08~10 EPS is expected to be 0.9, 1.3, 1.9 yuan, target price: 29.12 yuan.
Seven wolves (002029): overweight rating is expected to be 0.58, 0.74, and 0.89 yuan in 08~10 EPS, target price: 12.58 yuan.
Wedding bird (002154): overweight rating is estimated to be 0.64, 0.86 and 1.1 yuan in 08~10 EPS, target price: 14.62 yuan.
Lu Tai A (000726): overweight rating, 08~10 EPS is expected to be 0.65, 0.71, 0.8 yuan, target price: 7.1 yuan.
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