Financial Crisis: Transformation Of Manufacturing Industry In Crisis
11月20日,廣州火車(chē)站廣場(chǎng)熙熙攘攘,32歲的劉建昌和幾個(gè)老鄉(xiāng)圍坐在幾張報(bào)紙上,等著坐幾個(gè)小時(shí)后開(kāi)往武漢的火車(chē),周?chē)艥M了大包小包的行李。劉來(lái)自湖北仙桃,過(guò)去的3年多一直在廣東中山的鞋廠打工,往年年底,都是一年最忙的時(shí)候,加班加點(diǎn)活都做不完,但今年,不到9月廠子就沒(méi)什么活干了,半個(gè)月前,香港老板決定關(guān)廠。
Since it was only two months away from the new year, Liu decided to go home first after settling his wages. And his two countrymen were living less and less in the factory. wages Being lower and lower, it doesn't make any sense to go any further. "
Liu Kaiming, director of the Shenzhen Institute of contemporary social observation, seems to have made a rational decision by Liu Jianchang. "The average business is sending the salary at the end of next month, so even if you find a job, you may not get any money until then, and the train ticket is very tight at that time, so it's better to go back now."
近幾個(gè)月,在長(zhǎng)三角和珠三角,和劉建昌一樣提前踏上回家路途的農(nóng)民工不在少數(shù)。據(jù)湖北省總工會(huì)最新公布的數(shù)字,湖北省提前返鄉(xiāng)農(nóng)民工增至70萬(wàn),占外出務(wù)工人員總數(shù)的6.8%。在近期回流人員中,因企業(yè)關(guān)閉、停工、歇業(yè)回流的達(dá)33萬(wàn)余人,占47%;因企業(yè)降薪回流的達(dá)9萬(wàn)余人,占13%;因土地轉(zhuǎn)流和其他原因回流的約11萬(wàn)人,占15%。與民工返鄉(xiāng)潮相輔相成的,是企業(yè)的倒閉潮。國(guó)家發(fā)改委此前才公布,今年上半年,全國(guó)共有6.7萬(wàn)家規(guī)模以上的中小企業(yè)倒閉。
Wang Zhiguang, vice president of Dongguan Toy Association, believes that there are still more than 3800 toy enterprises operating, but in another two years, only 2000 can survive, and the other more than 1800 toy companies will go bankrupt. For a time, there was panic. Despite the fact that officials at all levels have come up with rumours and appealed to people to increase their confidence, the news of the collapse of large enterprises from time to time, the decline of GDP growth rate and the national stimulus package have all worried about China's economy, especially manufacturing.
After nearly 30 years of great development, China's manufacturing industry is facing an unprecedented difficult situation. How to get out of difficulties and achieve breakthroughs is a major issue related to the overall economic outlook and the future development mode.
All are financial crisis A mistake?
A lot of people think it's American. financial crisis It has caused the collapse of Chinese enterprises. In fact, Chinese manufacturing industry The crisis began to emerge in the early 2004. At that time, there was an unprecedented "shortage of migrant workers" in China's large population, and many enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta could not recruit enough manpower. This is obviously a wake-up call for China's manufacturing. After experiencing initial confusion, most enterprises were forced to raise wages to enhance attractiveness, and the increase in statutory minimum wage also increased the cost of employment.
近幾年,關(guān)于產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的呼吁不絕于耳,國(guó)家層面也出臺(tái)了一系列措施,在環(huán)保、能源、土地等方面對(duì)低附加值、高污染的出口加工企業(yè)進(jìn)行限制。在2007年7月1日,取消了553項(xiàng)“高耗能、高污染、資源性”產(chǎn)品的出口退稅;同時(shí)降低了2268項(xiàng)容易引起貿(mào)易摩擦的商品的出口退稅率。
7月23日,商務(wù)部、海關(guān)總署公布了新一批加工貿(mào)易限制類(lèi)目錄,占全部海關(guān)商品編碼的15%。目錄規(guī)定,自2007年8月23日起,對(duì)列入限制類(lèi)的商品將實(shí)行銀行保證金臺(tái)賬“實(shí)轉(zhuǎn)”管理。這直接引發(fā)港資企業(yè)的強(qiáng)烈反彈,他們?cè)谙愀酃I(yè)總會(huì)的牽頭下派代表進(jìn)京聯(lián)合申請(qǐng)暫緩執(zhí)行。彼時(shí),就不斷有企業(yè)倒閉的消息傳來(lái)。而對(duì)出口加工型企業(yè)影響最大的是人民幣的升值。
RMB exchange rate since 2005 reform Since then, the RMB pair dollar The total appreciation has been around 20%. This increases the price of products exported to the United States, while the processing fees paid in US dollars are reduced. This makes many enterprises profit from the original large profits, or even lose money and go bankrupt.
From the above, because of the rising cost, the predicament of Chinese export processing enterprises has already appeared, and has been deteriorating under the action of a series of internal and external factors. But rising costs do not necessarily lead to factory closures. The cost of Nike shoes is also rising. Why not go bankrupt?
The core problem is that China's export processing enterprises are at the lowest end of the industrial chain and have no pricing power. Made in China is just ordinary shoes, or just for Nike and other famous brand foundry. In this field, China is faced with competition from many countries, and prices are naturally not going to go. Low profit and poor ability to resist risks, the external environment will be affected if there is any trouble.
美國(guó)加利福尼亞大學(xué)的研究人員對(duì)一款蘋(píng)果iPod產(chǎn)品的成本分析顯示,其299美元的零售價(jià)當(dāng)中,中國(guó)工人的貢獻(xiàn)不到3美元,創(chuàng)造其真正價(jià)值的是概念和設(shè)計(jì)。“中國(guó)是世界工廠”,“外國(guó)人用的都是中國(guó)產(chǎn)品”,這些話時(shí)常掛在很多人嘴邊。但是外國(guó)人使用的中國(guó)產(chǎn)品,多是鞋子、衣服這類(lèi)缺乏技術(shù)含量的東西。到目前為止,中國(guó)設(shè)備投資的2/3還依賴進(jìn)口,其中光纖制造設(shè)備的100%,集成電路芯片制造設(shè)備的85%,石油化工設(shè)備的80%,轎車(chē)工業(yè)設(shè)備、數(shù)控機(jī)床、紡織機(jī)械、膠印設(shè)備的70%依賴進(jìn)口。
Such a pattern of manufacturing industry makes many industries entry threshold very low. The most immediate consequence is blind expansion and overcapacity. According to the third national industrial census, more than 80% of the main industrial products in the country are over productive or overabundant. At present, China's capacity accounts for 70% of GDP, and consumption accounts for only 35% of GDP. The remaining half is "export earning", which can only be digested by someone else buying your products, while the United States digests 70% of it. If Americans change the concept of "living within their means", China's economy will suffer a major blow immediately.
Recent US financial crisis Indeed, the consumption demand of Americans has been reduced, orders have shrunk, and many enterprises have not started to work. Therefore, the financial crisis has become a scapegoat for many companies to invest blindly and expand blindly. But at best, this is just the last straw to crush camels. Many manufacturing enterprises are eliminated sooner or later. The financial crisis only accelerated the process.
stay crisis Transformation in China
financial crisis It has created a good opportunity for China's manufacturing pformation. At a time of economic prosperity, the pformation of the mode of economic growth will probably become a futile slogan. Only under the pressure of external crisis can the pformation be realized without pformation. But it may also be a wishful thinking. Everyone knows that upgrading can not be accomplished overnight. The so-called "Teng cage for birds" and "double pfer" are just a beautiful vision. There is no substantial content. But now the collapse of the tide is going on and on. How to stabilize these enterprises in a very short time is a big problem China is facing now. After all, in China, economic growth bears too much political and cultural content that should not be borne.
Moreover, in the past 30 years, our system and officials at various levels have learned how to attract foreign investment, accustomed to the immediate economic growth brought about by the old mode, and there is little discussion and consensus on the signs of pformation, pfer to where and success of pformation.
因此,危機(jī)的到來(lái)使大家毫無(wú)準(zhǔn)備,措手不及,企業(yè)沒(méi)有準(zhǔn)備好過(guò)冬的棉衣,政府也一樣茫然,本能地希望有人能指點(diǎn)迷津,一夜之間回復(fù)昔日的輝煌。在此情勢(shì)下,過(guò)去幾年被反復(fù)提及的產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型基本銷(xiāo)聲匿跡,各級(jí)政府反復(fù)強(qiáng)調(diào)的是中小企業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)和如何挽救瀕臨倒閉的企業(yè),如何“保增長(zhǎng)”。
Recently, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a circular that the export rebate rate of 3486 commodities will be raised from November 1, 2008, accounting for 25.8% of the total number of commodities in the Customs Tariff of China. Since August 1st this year, China has raised the export tax rebate rate of some textiles and clothing from 11% to 13%. The adjustment will raise the export tax rebate rate of some textiles and clothing to 14%, and the export tax rebate rate of some toy products will also increase to 14%.
In November 21st, Ministry of Commerce The General Administration of customs also issued a circular to suspend the "real pfer" policy of the restricted margin accounts for processing trade, so as to ease the financial pressure of processing trade enterprises and maintain stable growth of foreign trade.
As a result, policies aimed at promoting industrial pformation were basically halted in the past few years. When the global economic downturn is involved in China's exports, it is necessary to ensure moderate export growth through policy pullbacks, but it must be clear that the fundamental way out for China is pforming. As premier Wen Jiabao emphasized in his research in Dongguan, we should combine the problems and challenges faced by small and medium enterprises with the long-term and sustainable economic growth mode of China's economy. Otherwise, in today's economic globalization, we can only survive through the winter, even if we rely on the help of financial expenditure. However, once the external shocks are encountered in the future, our economy will still face a more severe economic downturn because of the lack of core competitiveness and the structural adjustment of economic structure.
It should be admitted that despite the fact that a large number of manufacturing enterprises are closing down, we believe that the status of China's "world factory" will remain for a long time. This is because China has formed the corresponding industrial chain, the quality of the labor force is high, the infrastructure and other supporting systems are perfect, and pferred to the countries or regions where the labor cost is lower. It is not necessarily cost-effective for the enterprises. Another real reason is that the number of labor force in China is very large. At present, it is considered to be a hot area to undertake industrial pfer in China, such as Vietnam, Kampuchea and Eastern Europe. The land is narrow, the number of labor force is very limited, and the pfer factories can also be very limited, which is bound to have a large number of factories to stay in China. The only thing is labor.
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